The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for 2 February 1990 describes the latest developments in German unification, Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Arab States, Vietnam, and the Soviet Union.

This estimate updated an estimate (NIE-4-2-64) published in 1964 of the nuclear proliferation problem. That estimate, like this one, overestimated the likelihood of an Indian bomb, while somewhat underestimating Israel’s program. This assessment followed the same pattern—predicting India would produce a weapon within a “few years” and also putting Israel in the “might” category, although treating it as a “serious contender” nonetheless. Also following a short discussion of the “snowball effect” (later known as “proliferation cascades” or “chains”) suggesting that the United Arab Republic (Egypt-Syria) and Pakistan were likely to take the nuclear option should India or Israel go nuclear.

The document describes the negotiations between Soviet leaders and Nasser, which mainly focused on the conflict in the Middle East and the possible recognition of the GDR by the United Arab Republic. Nasser emphasized that there would be no direct talks between the UAR and Israel, but that the UAR would be willing to take part in a UN negotiated attempt to solve the conflict, upon the condition that Israel withdraw its troops from the occupied territories. Nasser was reluctant to follow the Soviet demand for a diplomatic recognition of the GDR.

The conversation is focused on the future development of GDR-Egyptian relations. Ulbricht talks about the agitation that his visit to Egypt caused in West Germany. He also asks Nasser if official diplomatic recognition of the GDR would be possible. Nasser asks for economic support for other newly independent African states. Nasser and Ulbricht also consider general questions of agriculture and the transition to a socialist economy.